Next Token Sale on Coinbase by November 30, 2026?
Probability
70¢
1h
+3.5pp
24h
+3.5pp
24h Vol
$27.82
Liquidity
$2.1K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryCoinbase (exchange price)TypeExchange priceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 70¢; +3.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryCoinbase (exchange price)TypeExchange priceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jan 1, 05:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5393.4h
Price movement
+3.5pp over the last 24h, now 70¢.
Biggest hourly move: +29.5pp at May 18, 12:00 UTC (to 79¢).
Show top 8 of 44 hourly moves
- May 19, 11:00 UTC · +25.5pp → 80¢
- May 19, 07:00 UTC · +24.5pp → 79¢
- May 19, 00:00 UTC · +24.0pp → 79¢
- May 18, 18:00 UTC · +20.5pp → 78¢
- May 18, 16:00 UTC · +22.0pp → 79¢
- May 18, 14:00 UTC · +22.5pp → 79¢
- May 18, 12:00 UTC · +29.5pp → 79¢
- May 18, 11:00 UTC · +26.0pp → 76¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a qualifying Coinbase token sale request window goes live between the creation of this market and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify, a Coinbase token sale request window must be live and actively accepting commitments. Qualifying sales must be hosted directly by Coinbase on coinbase.com/token-sales or any official successor page within the Coinbase app or website. Sales run on a project's own site via Sonar, Echo, or any Coinbase-powered white-label technology do not qualify, regardless of affiliation. Private sales, airdrops, standard exchange listings, and any sale without a dedicated public request window do not qualify. Sale announcements, previews, and waitlists do not constitute a live request window. A request window that opens and is subsequently cancelled, paused, or suspended still resolves to "Yes" — post-opening outcomes including cancellation, refunds, pauses, or failure to distribute tokens do not affect resolution. If a sale is announced but the request window never opens, or a token is listed directly without a request window, this market resolves to "No". The resolution source is coinbase.com/token-sales, official Coinbase blog posts, or @Coinbase/@CoinbaseMarkets on X, corroborated by credible news sources.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
tokenReason
Question text contains "token" — matched the Crypto keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Next Token Sale on Coinbase by November 30, 2026?"?
As of Thu, 21 May 2026 11:36:54 GMT, YES is priced at 70% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +3.5pp in the last 24 hours, +3.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jan 1, 2027 (2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$27.82 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $57.82. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 6.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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