SportsExpires Jul 1, 2026
Creator

NHL: Stanley Cup Winner USA or Canada?

Probability

92¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-1.0pp

24h Vol

$35.91

Liquidity

$1.5K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jul 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official NHL data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+8.5pp 7d
1007550250
92¢
May 11, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 07:59 UTC
updated 07:59:57 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T07-59Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 1pp over 24h

    Now 92¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $1.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jul 1, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1048.0h

    LOW

Price movement

-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 92¢.

Biggest hourly move: +7.0pp at May 14, 04:00 UTC (to 90¢).

Show 6 hourly moves
  • May 14, 04:00 UTC · +7.0pp → 90¢
  • May 14, 02:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 90¢
  • May 14, 00:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 90¢
  • May 13, 23:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 90¢
  • May 13, 21:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 90¢
  • May 13, 20:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 90¢
updated 07:59:57 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 07:59:57 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to “USA” if a team based in the United States of America wins the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals. This market will resolve to “Canada” if a team based in Canada wins the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals. If the 2026 NHL Playoffs are cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the NHL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

nhl

Reason

NHL — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "NHL: Stanley Cup Winner USA or Canada?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:59:57 GMT, YES is priced at 92% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +8.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 1, 2026 (2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$35.91 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket