Services Down Parlay
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$39.41
Liquidity
$662.87
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarypolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.comTypeSource not classifiedConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $663 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarypolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.comTypeSource not classifiedConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowRecent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - AWS service disrupted - Critical Discord Incident - Critical Cloudflare incident Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Services Down Parlay"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:56:25 GMT, YES is priced at 2% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -0.1pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Mar 31, 2026 (2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$39.41 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $14.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $662.87. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.8¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.