Tush Push banned for 2026 NFL Season?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$110.48
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial NFL dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $110 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial NFL dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Sep 10, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 2749.3h
Price movement
-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the NFL officially announces a rule change that prohibits, limits, or penalizes the “tush push” from being used in the 2026 season before the start of the first regular season game of the 2026 NFL season. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The “tush push” refers to a football play in which an offensive player or multiple offensive players line up directly behind the quarterback and push the quarterback forward immediately after the snap. A qualifying rule change must affect the use of this play. Partial bans, such as rules that ban pushing the quarterback only in certain situations (e.g. on quarterback sneaks), restrict who can push the quarterback, or impose penalties that specifically target the “tush push” formation or execution, will qualify. The market will resolve based on the first official announcement from the NFL. If the league announces that the tush push will not be banned for the 2026 NFL season, this market will resolve to “No”. Announcements of future rule changes affecting the use of the "tush push" which don't apply to the 2026 NFL season will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official NFL announcements however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
nfl Reason
NFL — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Tush Push banned for 2026 NFL Season?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 10:44:00 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -0.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Sep 10, 2026 (2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $110.48. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.5¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.