SportsExpires May 31, 2026
Creator

UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten Champion

Probability

99¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.3pp

24h Vol

$8.0K

Liquidity

$17.5K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED YES

Reason

YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-in, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official UEFA data
Link
uefa.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.4pp 7d
1007550250
99¢
May 11, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 07:10 UTC
updated 07:10:28 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T07-10Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $17.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 304.8h

    LOW

Price movement

-0.3pp over the last 24h, now 99¢.

updated 07:10:28 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 07:10:28 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League champion goes unbeaten in every match during the Knockout Stages of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League competition. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, “unbeaten” is defined as having not recorded a loss during any match in any stage of the Knockout Stages. The “Knockout Stages” include every match starting with the Knockout Play-Offs carrying each round of matches through, and including, the Champions League Final. If the 2025-26 Champions League competition is cancelled, postponed after June 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and a team is confirmed as unbeaten through the completed matches prior to cancellation or postponement, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

champions league

Reason

UEFA Champions League — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten Champion"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:10:28 GMT, YES is priced at 99% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.3pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -0.4pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/fixtures-results/bracket/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/fixtures-results/bracket/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$8.0K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $179.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $17.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.4¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket