SportsExpires May 30, 2026
Creator

Will Alavés be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season?

Probability

31¢

1h

+0.3pp

24h

-16.9pp

24h Vol

$90.00

Liquidity

$234.94

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

ScannerMarketWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official La Liga data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (60.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-7.3pp 7d
1007550250
1¢
May 11, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 07:02 UTC
updated 07:02:07 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T07-02Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 17pp over 24h

    Now 31¢; +0.3pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 60.1¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 281.0h

    LOW
  • 07:02Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-16.9pp over the last 24h, now 31¢.

Biggest hourly move: -41.6pp at May 16, 08:00 UTC (to 19¢).

Show top 8 of 57 hourly moves
  • May 16, 10:00 UTC · -38.9pp → 19¢
  • May 16, 09:00 UTC · -39.1pp → 19¢
  • May 16, 08:00 UTC · -41.6pp → 19¢
  • May 16, 06:00 UTC · -35.5pp → 19¢
  • May 16, 05:00 UTC · -36.2pp → 19¢
  • May 16, 03:00 UTC · -35.7pp → 19¢
  • May 16, 02:00 UTC · -35.6pp → 19¢
  • May 16, 00:00 UTC · -35.6pp → 19¢
updated 07:02:07 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 07:02:07 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

9
Same eventLALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?
Category · Sports

Market Description

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs are relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season. If the listed club is officially relegated by La Liga following the 2025–26 season, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2025–26 La Liga season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from La Liga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

la liga

Reason

La Liga — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Alavés be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:02:07 GMT, YES is priced at 31% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -16.9pp in the last 24 hours, +0.3pp in the last hour, and -7.3pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 30, 2026 (2026-05-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$90.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $234.94. Spread between best bid and best ask: 60.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket