Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be at least 45%?
Probability
8¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+0.9pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.4K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 10, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (VariaLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (4.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 4.6¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 10, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (VariaLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (4.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jan 10, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5671.4h
- 16:34SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
+0.9pp over the last 24h, now 8¢.
Biggest hourly move: -6.6pp at May 15, 15:00 UTC (to 7¢).
Show 7 hourly moves
- May 16, 01:00 UTC · -6.0pp → 9¢
- May 15, 19:00 UTC · -3.1pp → 9¢
- May 15, 17:00 UTC · -3.6pp → 9¢
- May 15, 15:00 UTC · -6.6pp → 7¢
- May 15, 13:00 UTC · -4.8pp → 8¢
- May 15, 11:00 UTC · -3.9pp → 8¢
- May 15, 08:00 UTC · -3.8pp → 9¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
inflationReason
Question text contains "inflation" — matched the Macro keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be at least 45%?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 16:34:44 GMT, YES is priced at 8% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.9pp in the last 24 hours, -0.1pp in the last hour, and -0.4pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jan 10, 2027 (2027-01-10T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.6¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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