SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Mar 1, 2027
Creator

Will Benoît Saint Denis fight Charles Oliveira next?

Probability

6¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$42.69

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Mar 1, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official UFC data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (10.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-28.7pp 7d
1007550250
6¢
May 11, 2026, 14:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 13:50 UTC
updated 13:50:06 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T13-50Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 10.6¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Mar 1, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 6874.2h

    LOW
  • 13:50Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.

Biggest hourly move: -42.6pp at May 15, 00:00 UTC (to 1¢).

Show top 8 of 65 hourly moves
  • 01:00 · -35.4pp → 6¢
  • 23:00 · -37.4pp → 6¢
  • 21:00 · -38.6pp → 6¢
  • 19:00 · -39.0pp → 6¢
  • 17:00 · -39.1pp → 6¢
  • 16:00 · -38.0pp → 6¢
  • 15:00 · -38.0pp → 6¢
  • May 15, 00:00 UTC · -42.6pp → 1¢
updated 13:50:06 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 13:50:06 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventUFC: Who will Charles Oliveira fight next?
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Charles Oliveira is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Charles Oliveira is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count. If Charles Oliveira is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

ufc

Reason

UFC — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Benoît Saint Denis fight Charles Oliveira next?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 13:50:06 GMT, YES is priced at 6% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -28.7pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Mar 1, 2027 (2027-03-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $42.69. Spread between best bid and best ask: 10.6¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

12 wallets
Open on Polymarket