SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Sep 10, 2026
Creator

Will Bill Gates buy the Seattle Seahawks?

Probability

2¢

1h

-0.2pp

24h

-0.2pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$505.79

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Sep 10, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.5pp 7d
1007550250
2¢
May 11, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 07:01 UTC
updated 07:01:46 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T07-01Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $506 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Sep 10, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 2753.0h

    LOW

Price movement

-0.2pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.

updated 07:01:46 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 07:01:46 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWho will buy the Seattle Seahawks?
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to the named individual who is publicly announced as having agreed to purchase the Seattle Seahawks by September 9, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET (the beginning of the 2026 NFL regular season). If no sale is announced before this time, this market will resolve to "Other". For the purposes of this market, an announcement must confirm that the Paul G. Allen estate (also known as Vulcan LLC) has reached a binding agreement to sell a majority interest in the team. Minority sales will not be considered. If a sale is announced to an individual that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”. If two or more listed individuals are announced as joint owners or part of the same ownership group, this market will resolve to the individual announced as the controlling owner. If two or more listed individuals are announced as the controlling owners, this market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the completion (closing) of the sale is not required. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the National Football League or the Seattle Seahawks. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

nfl

Reason

NFL — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Bill Gates buy the Seattle Seahawks?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:01:46 GMT, YES is priced at 2% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.2pp in the last 24 hours, -0.2pp in the last hour, and -0.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Sep 10, 2026 (2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $673.92. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $505.79. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.7¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

11 wallets
Open on Polymarket