Will Brentford qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?
Probability
1¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$208.90
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial UEFA dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $209 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial UEFA dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Sep 1, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 2535.9h
Price movement
+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.
Biggest hourly move: -4.0pp at May 13, 23:00 UTC (to 1¢).
Show top 8 of 15 hourly moves
- May 16, 00:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 1¢
- May 15, 23:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 1¢
- May 15, 21:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 1¢
- May 15, 20:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 1¢
- May 15, 18:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 1¢
- May 15, 15:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 1¢
- May 15, 13:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 1¢
- May 13, 23:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 1¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team clinches a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Champions League per UEFA rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to clinch a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Champions League (e.g. they cannot mathematically achieve a Champions League place, cannot qualify through play in European or cup competitions, etc.), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2025-26 English Premier League season is cancelled, postponed after August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether the listed team qualified for the league phase of the 2026-27 Champions League per UEFA rules within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA and/or the EPL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
champions leagueReason
UEFA Champions League — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Brentford qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:05:57 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -4.1pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Sep 1, 2026 (2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $383.13. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $208.90. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.4¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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