SportsExpires Sep 1, 2026
Creator

Will Liverpool qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?

Probability

97¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+7.6pp

24h Vol

$421.40

Liquidity

$1.2K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Sep 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official UEFA data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.9pp 7d
1007550250
97¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:14 UTC
updated 06:14:15 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-14Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 8pp over 24h

    Now 97¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $1.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability drops back below 92¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Sep 1, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 2537.8h

    LOW

Price movement

+7.6pp over the last 24h, now 97¢.

Biggest hourly move: -8.9pp at 14:00 (to 90¢).

Show top 8 of 33 hourly moves
  • 15:00 · -8.8pp → 90¢
  • 14:00 · -8.9pp → 90¢
  • 13:00 · -8.5pp → 90¢
  • 11:00 · -8.6pp → 90¢
  • 10:00 · -8.3pp → 90¢
  • 09:00 · -8.3pp → 90¢
  • May 17, 05:00 UTC · -8.8pp → 90¢
  • May 17, 04:00 UTC · -8.9pp → 90¢
updated 06:14:15 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 06:14:15 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

9
Same eventEPL: Team to qualify for UEFA Champions League
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team clinches a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Champions League per UEFA rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to clinch a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Champions League (e.g. they cannot mathematically achieve a Champions League place, cannot qualify through play in European or cup competitions, etc.), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2025-26 English Premier League season is cancelled, postponed after August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether the listed team qualified for the league phase of the 2026-27 Champions League per UEFA rules within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA and/or the EPL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

champions league

Reason

UEFA Champions League — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Liverpool qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:14:15 GMT, YES is priced at 97% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +7.6pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.9pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Sep 1, 2026 (2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$421.40 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $15.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.4¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket