Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?
Probability
51¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-9.0pp
24h Vol
$67.22
Liquidity
$4.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+6.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 9pp over 24h
Now 51¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $4.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 56¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jul 16, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 1408.8h
Price movement
-9.0pp over the last 24h, now 51¢.
Biggest hourly move: -22.5pp at May 15, 11:00 UTC (to 46¢).
Show top 8 of 63 hourly moves
- May 16, 00:00 UTC · -19.5pp → 49¢
- May 15, 18:00 UTC · -19.5pp → 49¢
- May 15, 11:00 UTC · -22.5pp → 46¢
- May 15, 08:00 UTC · -21.5pp → 47¢
- May 15, 05:00 UTC · -20.5pp → 48¢
- May 15, 02:00 UTC · -21.0pp → 47¢
- May 15, 00:00 UTC · -20.5pp → 48¢
- May 14, 23:00 UTC · -21.0pp → 48¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
gdpReason
Question text contains "gdp" — matched the Macro keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:11:22 GMT, YES is priced at 51% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -9.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +6.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jul 16, 2026 (2026-07-16T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$67.22 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $4.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $4.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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