SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Aug 31, 2026
Creator

Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 TOUR Championship?

Probability

7¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$733.22

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Aug 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the listed player who wins the 2026 TOUR Championship tournament
Link
pgatour.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+1.0pp 7d
1007550250
7¢
May 11, 2026, 14:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 13:47 UTC
updated 13:47:48 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T13-47Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 13.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Aug 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 2506.2h

    LOW
  • 13:47Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 7¢.

updated 13:47:48 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 13:47:48 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventFedEx Cup Playoffs: Winner
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 TOUR Championship tournament. If a listed player withdraws, is disqualified, does not participate or is eliminated from contention for the 2026 TOUR Championship tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No". If an unlisted player wins the 2026 TOUR Championship tournament this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If no winner is announced by September 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

pga tour

Reason

PGA Tour golf market — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 TOUR Championship?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 13:47:48 GMT, YES is priced at 7% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +1.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Aug 31, 2026 (2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $71.72. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $733.22. Spread between best bid and best ask: 13.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

6 wallets
Open on Polymarket