Will Dominique de Villepin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
Probability
66¢
1h
-7.0pp
24h
+11.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$66.78
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 23, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (17.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+14.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 11pp over 24h
Now 66¢; -7.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 17.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 23, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (17.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Apr 23, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 8147.8h
- 12:09SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+11.0pp over the last 24h, now 66¢.
Biggest hourly move: -24.0pp at May 14, 18:00 UTC (to 40¢).
Show top 8 of 55 hourly moves
- 12:00 · +15.5pp → 69¢
- May 17, 07:00 UTC · +15.5pp → 55¢
- May 17, 02:00 UTC · -14.0pp → 44¢
- May 16, 02:00 UTC · +12.5pp → 61¢
- May 15, 19:00 UTC · +13.5pp → 55¢
- May 15, 10:00 UTC · +13.0pp → 53¢
- May 14, 18:00 UTC · -24.0pp → 40¢
- May 14, 05:00 UTC · +14.5pp → 56¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
presidential electionReason
Election markets must always classify as Politics, never as Sports — Roadmap §3 invariant 2.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Dominique de Villepin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 12:09:49 GMT, YES is priced at 66% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +11.0pp in the last 24 hours, -7.0pp in the last hour, and +14.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Apr 23, 2027 (2027-04-23T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $13.85. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $66.78. Spread between best bid and best ask: 17.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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