PoliticsExpires May 31, 2026
Creator

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 19, 2026?

Probability

93¢

1h

-1.0pp

24h

+1.0pp

24h Vol

$656.96

Liquidity

$9.5K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+5.0pp 7d
1007550250
93¢
May 11, 2026, 09:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 08:03 UTC
updated 08:03:57 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T08-03Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 1pp over 24h

    Now 93¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $9.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 303.9h

    LOW

Price movement

+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 93¢.

Biggest hourly move: +8.0pp at 06:00 (to 94¢).

Show top 8 of 38 hourly moves
  • 08:00 · +7.0pp → 93¢
  • 06:00 · +8.0pp → 94¢
  • 02:00 · +7.5pp → 94¢
  • 00:00 · +7.0pp → 93¢
  • 23:00 · +7.0pp → 93¢
  • 21:00 · +7.0pp → 93¢
  • 19:00 · +6.5pp → 93¢
  • 17:00 · +6.5pp → 93¢
updated 08:03:57 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 08:03:57 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWill Trump publicly insult someone on...?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

trump

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "trump" — matched the Politics rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 19, 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:03:57 GMT, YES is priced at 93% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.0pp in the last 24 hours, -1.0pp in the last hour, and +5.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$656.96 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $9.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket