Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?
Probability
6¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$4.6K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 20, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theatersLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $4.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 20, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theatersLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 20, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5174.1h
- 09:54SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Market Description
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized. If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 09:54:16 GMT, YES is priced at 6% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -0.6pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 20, 2026 (2026-12-20T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $38.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $4.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.8¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.