SportsMulti-outcomeExpires May 28, 2026
Creator

Will Francesco Camarda be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?

Probability

0¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$202.02

Liquidity

$1.7K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 28, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
official statistics
Type
Official statistics
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
0¢
May 11, 2026, 10:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 09:05 UTC
updated 09:05:10 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T09-05Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $1.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 28, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 230.9h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

updated 09:05:10 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 09:05:10 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventSerie A - Top Goalscorer
Category · Sports

Market Description

This is a polymarket to predict which player will finish as the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Serie A season. If the listed player finishes as the sole top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Serie A season, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Only goals scored in Serie A matches will count. Goals scored in other competitions (e.g., Coppa Italia, Champions League, Europa League, international matches) will not count for this market. If multiple players tie for the top goal scorer, the market will resolve to the player whose last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2025–26 Serie A season is canceled or not completed by August 1, 2026, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official statistics from Serie A soccer. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

champions league

Reason

UEFA Champions League — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Francesco Camarda be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 09:05:10 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 28, 2026 (2026-05-28T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$202.02 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

15 wallets
Open on Polymarket