UnclassifiedExpires Feb 28, 2027
Creator

Will GTA 6 cost $100+?

Probability

10¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.5pp

24h Vol

$841.74

Liquidity

$14.4K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Feb 28, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-2.0pp 7d
1007550250
10¢
May 11, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 07:09 UTC
updated 07:09:26 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T07-09Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $14.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Feb 28, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 6856.8h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 10¢.

Biggest hourly move: -4.0pp at May 14, 07:00 UTC (to 8¢).

Show top 8 of 11 hourly moves
  • May 15, 07:00 UTC · -3.5pp → 10¢
  • May 15, 03:00 UTC · -3.5pp → 11¢
  • May 15, 02:00 UTC · -3.5pp → 11¢
  • May 14, 23:00 UTC · -3.0pp → 11¢
  • May 14, 12:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 8¢
  • May 14, 11:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 8¢
  • May 14, 09:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 8¢
  • May 14, 07:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 8¢
updated 07:09:26 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 07:09:26 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard edition of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) launches at $100.00 or more. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the pre-tax launch price in USD of the standard edition of GTA 6 on Xbox or PlayStation as listed on the Microsoft Store or PlayStation Store on the first official day of its release in the United States. If the price differs between the Microsoft and PlayStation stores, this market will resolve according to the lower price. This market will resolve based on the lowest price version that includes the full standard game with no DLC, etc. If GTA 6 is not released or release is otherwise delayed beyond February 28, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the Microsoft Store/PlayStation Store, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: low

Category

Other

Source

Default fallback

Reason

No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will GTA 6 cost $100+?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:09:26 GMT, YES is priced at 10% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -2.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Feb 28, 2027 (2027-02-28T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$841.74 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $109.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $14.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket