UnclassifiedMulti-outcomeExpires Nov 12, 2026
Creator

Will Jackson Ragen win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?

Probability

3¢

1h

-0.3pp

24h

-0.2pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$105.47

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Nov 12, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (6.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
3¢
May 11, 2026, 13:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 12:02 UTC
updated 12:03:54 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T12-03Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 6.2¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Nov 12, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 4259.9h

    LOW
  • 12:03Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.2pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.

Biggest hourly move: -4.5pp at May 15, 05:00 UTC (to 0¢).

Show top 8 of 21 hourly moves
  • 02:00 · +4.1pp → 4¢
  • 00:00 · +3.9pp → 4¢
  • 20:00 · +4.1pp → 5¢
  • 19:00 · +4.3pp → 5¢
  • 17:00 · +4.0pp → 4¢
  • 14:00 · +4.3pp → 5¢
  • May 15, 05:00 UTC · -4.5pp → 0¢
  • May 14, 21:00 UTC · -4.3pp → 0¢
updated 12:03:54 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 12:03:54 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventMLS: 2026 Defender of the Year

Market Description

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 MLS Defender of the Year award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLS rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: low

Category

Other

Source

Default fallback

Reason

No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Jackson Ragen win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 12:03:54 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.2pp in the last 24 hours, -0.3pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Nov 12, 2026 (2026-11-12T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $11.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $105.47. Spread between best bid and best ask: 6.2¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

9 wallets
Open on Polymarket