Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?
Probability
53¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+2.5pp
24h Vol
$824.96
Liquidity
$12.9K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 27, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 53¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $12.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 27, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 27, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 209.8h
Price movement
+2.5pp over the last 24h, now 53¢.
Biggest hourly move: -37.5pp at May 15, 21:00 UTC (to 42¢).
Show top 8 of 40 hourly moves
- 09:00 · -34.5pp → 44¢
- May 17, 05:00 UTC · -34.5pp → 45¢
- May 17, 03:00 UTC · -34.5pp → 45¢
- May 17, 02:00 UTC · -34.5pp → 45¢
- May 17, 00:00 UTC · -34.5pp → 45¢
- May 16, 00:00 UTC · -35.5pp → 44¢
- May 15, 23:00 UTC · -35.5pp → 44¢
- May 15, 21:00 UTC · -37.5pp → 42¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the English Premier League standings for the 2025–26 season. If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the English Premier League standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If two or more clubs are tied on points for a top 4 position, resolution will follow the official English Premier League tiebreaking procedures. If the 2025–26 English Premier League season is canceled or not completed before October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source will be official information from the English Premier League. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
premier leagueReason
EPL — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:13:48 GMT, YES is priced at 53% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +2.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +5.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 27, 2026 (2026-05-27T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$824.96 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $97.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $12.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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