CultureMulti-outcomeExpires May 18, 2026
Creator

Will MrBeast's next video get between 38 and 40 million views on day 2?

Probability

0¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$17.4K

Liquidity

$14.5K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

EXPIRED

Reason

Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.

Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 18, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
@MrBeast
Link
youtube.com
Type
Social media post
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires May 18, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
0¢
May 17, 2026, 18:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 07:13 UTC
updated 07:13:17 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T07-13Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $14.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 07:13Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • 00:00Scheduled resolution

    Expiry passed 7h ago; not yet resolved upstream

    HIGH

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

updated 07:13:17 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 07:13:17 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

4
Same event# of views of MrBeast video day 2?

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of views the latest YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 48 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 48 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to the video titled "Survive 30 Days On An Island With Your Ex, Win $250,000", which can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AaMdXZMvT3w. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Culture

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

mrbeast

Reason

Question text contains "mrbeast" — matched the Culture keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will MrBeast's next video get between 38 and 40 million views on day 2?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:13:17 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 18, 2026 (2026-05-18T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$17.4K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $17.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $14.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket