Will MVK Esports qualify for EWC 2026?
Probability
1¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
-2.4pp
24h Vol
$1.5K
Liquidity
$930.52
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 20, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 20, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
-9.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 1¢; +0.1pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 36h.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $931 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 36 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 20, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 20, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 20, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 35.5h
- 12:29SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 36h.
Price movement
-2.4pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.
Biggest hourly move: -12.0pp at May 16, 21:00 UTC (to 3¢).
Show top 8 of 54 hourly moves
- May 17, 06:00 UTC · -11.5pp → 3¢
- May 17, 05:00 UTC · -11.1pp → 3¢
- May 17, 02:00 UTC · -11.5pp → 3¢
- May 17, 00:00 UTC · -11.1pp → 3¢
- May 16, 21:00 UTC · -12.0pp → 3¢
- May 16, 20:00 UTC · -10.6pp → 3¢
- May 16, 15:00 UTC · -11.0pp → 3¢
- May 16, 03:00 UTC · -11.0pp → 3¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
The Esports World Cup 2026 APAC Qualifier is scheduled to take place from May 5 to May 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to which teams qualify for the EWC 2026 Main Event through the APAC Qualifier. If the listed team officially qualifies as one of the teams advancing from the APAC Qualifier to the EWC 2026 Main Event, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Ties in standings will be broken according to the official Esports World Cup Foundation rules. If the Esports World Cup 2026 is canceled, postponed indefinitely, or if the official list of EWC 2026 participants is not published by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM, ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source will be official information from the Esports World Cup (https://esportsworldcup.com/). However, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/Esports_World_Cup/2026/APAC) may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
world cupReason
World Cup — Sports (qualified by election overrides above).
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will MVK Esports qualify for EWC 2026?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 12:29:31 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.1pp in the last hour, and -9.9pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 20, 2026 (2026-05-20T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$1.5K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $930.52. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.4¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.