SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 10, 2026
Creator

Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Probability

0¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$195.6K

Liquidity

$525.3K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

ScannerMarketWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=resolved

Derived status (Orrery)

RESOLVED NO

Reason

Upstream marked the market closed/settled with NO price dominant.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 10, 2026
UMA status
resolved
Resolution source
Primary
Official NBA data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.7pp 7d
1007550250
0¢
May 11, 2026, 06:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 05:09 UTC
updated 05:11:07 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T05-11Z

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 10, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 546.8h

    LOW

Price movement

-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

updated 05:11:07 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 05:11:07 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

12
Same eventNBA MVP
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nikola Jokic is awarded the 2025–26 regular season NBA Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 NBA MVP award, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

nba

Reason

NBA — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 05:11:07 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -0.7pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 10, 2026 (2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$195.6K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.0M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $525.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket