Will OPEC crude oil production be above 21 million barrels per day in May?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$7.1K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $7.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 11, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 565.9h
Price movement
+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: -9.3pp at May 17, 07:00 UTC (to 2¢).
Show top 8 of 31 hourly moves
- 09:00 · -8.5pp → 3¢
- 08:00 · -8.5pp → 3¢
- 03:00 · -8.5pp → 3¢
- 02:00 · -8.5pp → 3¢
- 00:00 · -8.5pp → 3¢
- 21:00 · -9.0pp → 3¢
- May 17, 09:00 UTC · -8.6pp → 2¢
- May 17, 07:00 UTC · -9.3pp → 2¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026 The relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d). The figure will be converted to barrels per day for resolution. Crude oil production for non-OPEC (including OPEC+) countries will not be considered. If the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for June 2026 is not released by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, or if it is released and the relevant data is not included, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, typically published at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of specificity that will be used to resolve this market.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
crude oilReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "crude oil" — matched the Macro rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will OPEC crude oil production be above 21 million barrels per day in May?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 10:05:08 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.1pp in the last hour, and -7.4pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 11, 2026 (2026-06-11T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $7.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.7¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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