Will OPEC crude oil production be above 18 million barrels per day in May?
Probability
11¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-5.0pp
24h Vol
$240.00
Liquidity
$1.1K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-30.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 5pp over 24h
Now 11¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 10.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 11, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 568.9h
- 07:05SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-5.0pp over the last 24h, now 11¢.
Biggest hourly move: -29.5pp at 07:00 (to 12¢).
Show top 8 of 58 hourly moves
- 07:00 · -29.5pp → 12¢
- May 17, 03:00 UTC · +26.5pp → 43¢
- May 17, 02:00 UTC · +24.0pp → 41¢
- May 16, 00:00 UTC · +15.5pp → 36¢
- May 15, 23:00 UTC · +22.5pp → 43¢
- May 15, 21:00 UTC · +23.0pp → 42¢
- May 15, 20:00 UTC · +23.0pp → 42¢
- May 15, 08:00 UTC · -18.5pp → 16¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
9- 1¢+0.1
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $518.4K
- 98¢-0.3
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $290.5K
- 1¢+0.5
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $288.9K
- 0¢-0.2
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $196.3K
- 63¢+4.0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?
Macro · Vol $182.0K
- 0¢0.0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $177.4K
Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026 The relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d). The figure will be converted to barrels per day for resolution. Crude oil production for non-OPEC (including OPEC+) countries will not be considered. If the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for June 2026 is not released by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, or if it is released and the relevant data is not included, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, typically published at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of specificity that will be used to resolve this market.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
crude oilReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "crude oil" — matched the Macro rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will OPEC crude oil production be above 18 million barrels per day in May?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:05:51 GMT, YES is priced at 11% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -5.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -30.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 11, 2026 (2026-06-11T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$240.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $952.21. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 10.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.