Will OpenAI launch a token before 2027?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.6pp
24h Vol
$20.00
Liquidity
$4.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Probability (last 7 days)
-5.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 3¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $4.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5440.0h
- 08:00SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.
Price movement
-1.6pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: -5.0pp at 14:00 (to 3¢).
Show top 8 of 29 hourly moves
- 07:00 · -5.0pp → 3¢
- 03:00 · -5.0pp → 3¢
- 02:00 · -5.0pp → 3¢
- 00:00 · -5.0pp → 3¢
- 23:00 · -5.0pp → 3¢
- 21:00 · -5.0pp → 3¢
- 20:00 · -5.0pp → 3¢
- 19:00 · -5.0pp → 3¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain. The resolution source will be public announcements from OpenAI.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
tokenReason
Question text contains "token" — matched the Crypto keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will OpenAI launch a token before 2027?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:00:54 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.6pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -5.3pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$20.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $3.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $4.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.