Will Pam Bondi be held in contempt of Congress by June 30?

• 01
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

• 02
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 83.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pam Bondi is held in contempt of Congress by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Pam Bondi will be considered to be held in contempt of Congress once a full chamber vote of the House of Representatives or Senate votes to approve a resolution (or other measure) holding her in contempt of Congress. A qualifying vote within this market’s timeframe will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of any subsequent appeals or challenges it may face or whether or not the Department of Justice prosecutes the matter. The approval of a contempt of Congress resolution by the full chamber of the House of Representatives or Senate without a vote (e.g. approval through unanimous consent) will count. Committee votes or other procedural steps prior to a full senate or house vote on a contempt of Congress resolution will not count. The primary resolution sources will be official information from the United States Congress; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.