Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Probability
6¢
1h
+0.2pp
24h
-2.7pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$6.0K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (7.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 6¢; +0.2pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 7.4¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (7.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 22981.1h
- 10:53SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-2.7pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.
Biggest hourly move: -5.5pp at May 15, 20:00 UTC (to 6¢).
Show top 8 of 29 hourly moves
- May 16, 00:00 UTC · -4.6pp → 7¢
- May 15, 21:00 UTC · -5.2pp → 6¢
- May 15, 20:00 UTC · -5.5pp → 6¢
- May 15, 18:00 UTC · -5.3pp → 6¢
- May 15, 16:00 UTC · -4.7pp → 7¢
- May 15, 15:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 8¢
- May 15, 08:00 UTC · -4.6pp → 7¢
- May 14, 22:00 UTC · -4.2pp → 6¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
prime ministerReason
Prime Minister selection / confirmation markets — Politics regardless of country.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 10:53:21 GMT, YES is priced at 6% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.7pp in the last 24 hours, +0.2pp in the last hour, and -0.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 31, 2028 (2028-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $6.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 7.4¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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