Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-great-divide-noah-kahan-be-the-billboard-200-1-album-for-the-week-of-may-23 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-great-divide-noah-kahan-be-the-billboard-200-1-album-for-the-week-of-may-23/markdown.

EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires May 19, 2026

Creator

Will "The Great Divide - Noah Kahan" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of May 23?

Probability

100¢

+0.0pp

24h

+0.1pp

24h Vol

$6.3K

Liquidity

$5.4K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Scanner Market Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED YES

Reason

YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-in, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk

End date: May 19, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
to the number 1 album on the Billboard 200 chart dated “Week of May 23, 2026”
Link
billboard.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Market expires May 19, 2026 — dispute window active.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

100¢

May 14, 2026, 00:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:58 UTC

updated 06:59:01 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-59Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

01
Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 17h.
02
Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $5.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 17 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk

End date: May 19, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
to the number 1 album on the Billboard 200 chart dated “Week of May 23, 2026”
Link
billboard.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Market expires May 19, 2026 — dispute window active.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

00:00Scheduled resolution
Market resolves in 17.0h
HIGH
06:59Signal
Resolution risk
Expires in 17h.
MEDIUM

Price movement

+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.

Biggest hourly move: +58.1pp at May 16, 17:00 UTC (to 99¢).

Show top 8 of 28 hourly moves

20:00 · +10.4pp → 100¢
07:00 · +10.8pp → 100¢
May 17, 00:00 UTC · +11.7pp → 99¢
May 16, 23:00 UTC · +10.7pp → 99¢
May 16, 19:00 UTC · +10.6pp → 99¢
May 16, 17:00 UTC · +58.1pp → 99¢
May 16, 15:00 UTC · +46.6pp → 99¢
May 16, 13:00 UTC · +49.5pp → 99¢

updated 06:59:01 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 06:59:01 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventBillboard 200 #1 Album Week of May 23

Market Description

Billboard updates the Billboard 200 albums chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then dated “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 album on the Billboard 200 chart dated “Week of May 23, 2026”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard 200 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the Billboard 200 chart for the specified week, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/) or through other official Billboard channels.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will "The Great Divide - Noah Kahan" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of May 23?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:59:01 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 19, 2026 (2026-05-19T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$6.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $53.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $5.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.3¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket