UnclassifiedMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1550.00 and 1599.99 at the end of December 2026?

Probability

29¢

1h

+5.7pp

24h

+1.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$1.4K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com
Link
bcra.gob.ar
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (48.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+16.8pp 7d
1007550250
29¢
May 11, 2026, 13:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 12:10 UTC
updated 12:10:21 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T12-10Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 1pp over 24h

    Now 29¢; +5.7pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 48.4¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5435.8h

    LOW
  • 12:10Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 29¢.

Biggest hourly move: +23.9pp at May 16, 13:00 UTC (to 36¢).

Show top 8 of 58 hourly moves
  • May 16, 19:00 UTC · +14.9pp → 27¢
  • May 16, 13:00 UTC · +23.9pp → 36¢
  • May 16, 05:00 UTC · +16.7pp → 29¢
  • May 15, 21:00 UTC · +16.6pp → 28¢
  • May 15, 15:00 UTC · +15.4pp → 27¢
  • May 14, 14:00 UTC · +15.4pp → 27¢
  • May 14, 12:00 UTC · +16.5pp → 28¢
  • May 14, 10:00 UTC · +14.5pp → 26¢
updated 12:10:21 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 12:10:21 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventArgentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026?

Market Description

This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/). If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date. The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Why this category?

confidence: low

Category

Other

Source

Default fallback

Reason

No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1550.00 and 1599.99 at the end of December 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 12:10:21 GMT, YES is priced at 29% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.0pp in the last 24 hours, +5.7pp in the last hour, and +16.8pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $551.42. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 48.4¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

14 wallets
Open on Polymarket