Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026?
Probability
4¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.3pp
24h Vol
$35.50
Liquidity
$17.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'disputed'.
Resolution is contested. Do not treat the current price as final until UMA settles.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- disputed
- Resolution source
- PrimaryUS governmentTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: disputed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $17.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: disputed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- disputed
- Resolution source
- PrimaryUS governmentTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: disputed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5440.8h
- 07:09SignalLOW
Resolution risk
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
Price movement
+0.3pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.
Biggest hourly move: +12.7pp at May 16, 06:00 UTC (to 14¢).
Show 3 hourly moves
- May 16, 17:00 UTC · +3.6pp → 5¢
- May 16, 15:00 UTC · +4.7pp → 6¢
- May 16, 06:00 UTC · +12.7pp → 14¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
air strikeReason
Air-strike markets are Geopolitics.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:09:24 GMT, YES is priced at 4% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.3pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +2.8pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (disputed).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (disputed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$35.50 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $139.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $17.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.