Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Probability
22¢
1h
+1.1pp
24h
+1.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$6.6K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 20, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryRussian governmentTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (23.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 22¢; +1.1pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 23.5¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 20, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryRussian governmentTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (23.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Sep 20, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 2989.7h
- 10:20SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+1.1pp over the last 24h, now 22¢.
Biggest hourly move: -6.7pp at May 15, 09:00 UTC (to 19¢).
Show top 8 of 30 hourly moves
- May 17, 07:00 UTC · -4.6pp → 21¢
- May 17, 04:00 UTC · -4.9pp → 21¢
- May 16, 15:00 UTC · -4.9pp → 21¢
- May 15, 21:00 UTC · -4.6pp → 22¢
- May 15, 15:00 UTC · -4.6pp → 22¢
- May 15, 11:00 UTC · -4.6pp → 21¢
- May 15, 09:00 UTC · -6.7pp → 19¢
- May 15, 08:00 UTC · -5.5pp → 20¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
russiaReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "russia" — matched the Geopolitics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 10:20:13 GMT, YES is priced at 22% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.1pp in the last 24 hours, +1.1pp in the last hour, and -2.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Sep 20, 2026 (2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $6.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 23.5¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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