Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by June 5?
Probability
97¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.1pp
24h Vol
$1.03
Liquidity
$8.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 97¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $8.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 1024.8h
- 07:11SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
+1.1pp over the last 24h, now 97¢.
Biggest hourly move: +6.0pp at 09:00 (to 96¢).
Show top 8 of 17 hourly moves
- 23:00 · +4.5pp → 97¢
- 09:00 · +6.0pp → 96¢
- May 17, 07:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 96¢
- May 17, 06:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 96¢
- May 17, 05:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 96¢
- May 17, 04:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 96¢
- May 17, 02:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 96¢
- May 17, 00:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 96¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before June 5, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before June 5, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on or before June 5 2026, by June 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
crude oilReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "crude oil" — matched the Macro rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by June 5?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:11:37 GMT, YES is priced at 97% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +5.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$1.03 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $13.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $8.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.7¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
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