Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?

• 01
  Price move

  Down 1pp over 24h

  Now 41¢; +0.9pp in the last hour.

• 02
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

• 03
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 52.6¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Russia Parliamentary election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.