EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 19, 2026
Creator

Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be less than 200k?

Probability

1h

+0.3pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$1.6K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 19, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the debut week sales for Olivia Rodrigo's album 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love', according to Hits Daily
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (4.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-29.3pp 7d
1007550250
5¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:58 UTC
updated 06:58:59 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-58Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 4.7¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 19, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 761.0h

    LOW
  • 06:58Signal

    Resolution risk

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 5¢.

Biggest hourly move: -33.8pp at May 14, 02:00 UTC (to 6¢).

Show top 8 of 40 hourly moves
  • May 14, 08:00 UTC · -26.1pp → 6¢
  • May 14, 06:00 UTC · -27.8pp → 6¢
  • May 14, 05:00 UTC · -28.4pp → 6¢
  • May 14, 04:00 UTC · -29.2pp → 6¢
  • May 14, 02:00 UTC · -33.8pp → 6¢
  • May 14, 00:00 UTC · -31.8pp → 6¢
  • May 13, 20:00 UTC · -27.1pp → 6¢
  • May 13, 19:00 UTC · -28.1pp → 6¢
updated 06:58:59 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 06:58:59 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

Olivia Rodrigo's new album 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' is expected to release June 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the debut week sales for Olivia Rodrigo's album 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love', according to Hits Daily Double. If the album 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' has not been released by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the album’s debut week sales fall exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming, specifically, the figure in the column titled "Activity", once the results are finalized for the album’s debut week. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible resolution source may be chosen.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Entertainment

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

debut week album sales

Reason

Album-sales markets are Entertainment / music.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be less than 200k?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:58:59 GMT, YES is priced at 5% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.3pp in the last hour, and -29.3pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 19, 2026 (2026-06-19T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.7¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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