CryptoExpires May 25, 2026
Creator

Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 25?

Probability

0¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.7pp

24h Vol

$77.8K

Liquidity

$68.9K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=proposed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA PENDING

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 25, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
Binance spot pair
Link
binance.com
Type
Exchange price
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Market expires May 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-50.0pp 7d
1007550250
0¢
May 18, 2026, 17:00 UTCMay 25, 2026, 11:03 UTC
updated 16:52:31 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-25T16-52Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 16:52Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Scheduled resolution

    Expiry passed 1h ago; awaiting UMA confirmation

    HIGH

Price movement

-0.7pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -34.6pp at 02:00 (to 0¢).

Show top 8 of 36 hourly moves
  • 02:00 · -34.6pp → 0¢
  • May 22, 14:00 UTC · +30.5pp → 35¢
  • May 21, 20:00 UTC · -6.4pp → 5¢
  • May 21, 19:00 UTC · -7.3pp → 3¢
  • May 21, 17:00 UTC · -6.7pp → 3¢
  • May 21, 13:00 UTC · -7.2pp → 5¢
  • May 21, 11:00 UTC · -8.0pp → 4¢
  • May 21, 07:00 UTC · -34.5pp → 4¢
updated 16:52:31 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 16:52:31 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

5
Category · Crypto

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Crypto

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

xrp

Reason

XRP / Ripple token market — Crypto.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 25?"?

As of Mon, 25 May 2026 16:52:31 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.7pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -50.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 25, 2026 (2026-05-25T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$77.8K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $78.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $68.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket