Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on May 18?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$58.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 18, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 18, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
-49.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 18, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 18, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 17:30SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 16:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 2h ago; awaiting UMA confirmation
Price movement
-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Biggest hourly move: -47.9pp at 02:00 (to 0¢).
Show top 8 of 18 hourly moves
- 02:00 · -47.9pp → 0¢
- May 16, 10:00 UTC · -46.5pp → 1¢
- May 16, 09:00 UTC · -46.5pp → 1¢
- May 16, 08:00 UTC · -45.2pp → 2¢
- May 16, 07:00 UTC · -45.8pp → 2¢
- May 14, 09:00 UTC · -46.1pp → 3¢
- May 14, 08:00 UTC · -47.3pp → 3¢
- May 14, 06:00 UTC · -46.8pp → 3¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
xrpReason
XRP / Ripple token market — Crypto.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on May 18?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 17:30:22 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -49.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 18, 2026 (2026-05-18T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $741.04. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $58.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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