Guilty-Spring
0x04dcbd9b805b220a9b2d27e4d9e649ed07902387
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$13.3K
Total PnL
$-18.5K
Realised
$3.8K
Win rate
75%
63 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
1334 shares @ 78.2¢·now 92.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.2K
$184.48
- NO
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May?
1400 shares @ 76.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$1.0K
$-21.00
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
858 shares @ 33.0¢·now 95.9¢·exp May 31, 2026$822.19
$539.48
- YES
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
1000 shares @ 48.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$685.00
$205.00
- YES
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?
706 shares @ 75.2¢·now 89.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$631.74
$101.04
- NO
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?
565 shares @ 81.5¢·now 96.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$542.68
$82.14
- YES
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
1183 shares @ 22.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$514.61
$254.55
- YES
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?
474 shares @ 67.7¢·now 95.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$451.85
$130.70
- NO
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May?
599 shares @ 65.2¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$386.36
$-3.98
- NO
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 0 weeks?
374 shares @ 98.1¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$366.17
$-0.27
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01May 18, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Click Bishop advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?$0.22May 17, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026$12.30May 17, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026$11.78May 17, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Don Mattingly be the next permanent manager of the Philadelphia Phillies?$5.44May 17, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rodrigo Pacheco win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?$32.26May 17, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?$20.89May 17, 14:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?$50.03May 17, 12:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Denmark be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?$9.00May 17, 12:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?$360.00May 17, 12:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill BNK FEARX qualify to MSI 2026?$28.82May 17, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chad Tracy be the next Red Sox manager?$4.74May 17, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Unit launch a token by December 31, 2026?$18.73May 17, 11:59 UTC
- MERGEWill Trump announce Kyle Diamantas as the next FDA commissioner by December 31?$4.99May 17, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump announce Kyle Diamantas as the next FDA commissioner by December 31?$5.50May 17, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k?$1.09May 17, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k?$4.56May 17, 11:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?$33.52May 17, 11:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 4.3% in May?$66.45May 17, 11:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 4.2% in May?$76.14May 17, 11:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $64.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 09:10 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 63 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".