Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
Probability
38¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-12.1pp
24h Vol
$82.90
Liquidity
$1.1K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (11.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 12pp over 24h
Now 38¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 11.7¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (11.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Nov 4, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 4071.9h
- 08:05SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-12.1pp over the last 24h, now 38¢.
Biggest hourly move: -20.8pp at 05:00 (to 38¢).
Show top 8 of 51 hourly moves
- 08:05 · -20.7pp → 38¢
- 07:00 · -20.7pp → 38¢
- 05:00 · -20.8pp → 38¢
- 03:00 · -20.6pp → 38¢
- 02:00 · -20.6pp → 38¢
- May 14, 09:00 UTC · +20.6pp → 57¢
- May 14, 08:00 UTC · +20.6pp → 57¢
- May 14, 07:00 UTC · +20.6pp → 57¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title. If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
trumpReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "trump" — matched the Politics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:05:16 GMT, YES is priced at 38% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -12.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -4.6pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Nov 4, 2026 (2026-11-04T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$82.90 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $44.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 11.7¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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