Grumpy-Urn
0x08458f7e9d2858027de579e4c3ca305475496b6f
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$185.7K
Total PnL
$-41.5K
Realised
$-4.7K
Win rate
61%
133 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
25796 shares @ 89.8¢·now 90.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$23.3K
$191.23
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
20554 shares @ 93.6¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$19.6K
$395.89
- NO
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
16471 shares @ 85.7¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$14.4K
$296.82
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
11942 shares @ 95.1¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$11.6K
$275.78
- NO
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
10537 shares @ 96.7¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.0K
$-181.84
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
16333 shares @ 70.5¢·now 59.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$9.7K
$-1.8K
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
7107 shares @ 85.7¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.1K
$57.87
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
5761 shares @ 90.1¢·now 95.3¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.5K
$301.41
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
7959 shares @ 54.5¢·now 57.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.6K
$239.04
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
4185 shares @ 90.3¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.8K
$8.43
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?$464.98May 18, 05:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?$697.50May 18, 05:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$2.9KMay 18, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by June 30?$555.00May 18, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by June 30?$4.46May 18, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?$52.50May 18, 05:31 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$0.23May 18, 05:14 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$4.44May 18, 04:56 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$0.23May 18, 04:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$8.87May 18, 04:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$53.15May 18, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$39.40May 18, 03:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$49.42May 18, 03:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$50.52May 18, 03:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?$571.92May 18, 02:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?$621.50May 18, 02:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?$269.73May 18, 02:28 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$10.55May 18, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$81.15May 18, 00:38 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.09May 18, 00:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $314.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 11:48 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 05:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 133 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".