Vain-Hearsay
0x146ddbae0a17c93df342680d878afa804d8317c7
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.8K
Total PnL
$-20.9K
Realised
$3.8K
Win rate
64%
36 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
7724 shares @ 14.2¢·now 7.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$579.27
$-515.26
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
3549 shares @ 2.0¢·now 16.3¢·exp May 19, 2026$576.75
$504.66
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
3735 shares @ 0.6¢·now 6.8¢·exp May 22, 2026$252.11
$228.29
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
3812 shares @ 1.7¢·now 2.8¢·exp May 19, 2026$104.83
$39.24
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
4524 shares @ 0.5¢·now 1.7¢·exp May 22, 2026$76.91
$51.78
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
9005 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.5¢·exp May 19, 2026$49.53
$-513.27
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
3753 shares @ 0.4¢·now 1.3¢·exp May 22, 2026$46.91
$29.72
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
4009 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.6¢·exp May 22, 2026$24.05
$-166.79
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
4263 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.5¢·exp May 19, 2026$23.44
$-23.15
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
3525 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp May 22, 2026$15.86
$-3.87
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$0.89May 18, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$1.61May 18, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$1.17May 18, 08:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$2.62May 18, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$0.15May 18, 08:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$0.23May 18, 08:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$2.08May 18, 08:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?$2.21May 18, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?$1.20May 18, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?$0.69May 18, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?$3.07May 18, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?$0.25May 18, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?$0.11May 18, 08:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?$32.94May 18, 08:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?$1.00May 18, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$0.13May 18, 08:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?$1.88May 18, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$17.81May 18, 08:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?$24.37May 18, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?$5.06May 18, 08:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $5.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 18, 08:21 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 08:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 36 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".