Pale-Interpretation
0x4cfb39121a1429723d3bf4f686f4a22f6bbb3990
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
87
Open notional
$179.93
Total PnL
$36.11
Realised
$39.27
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 87- NO
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?
35 shares @ 89.6¢·now 96.1¢·exp May 31, 2026$33.23
$2.23
- NO
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?
14 shares @ 84.8¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$12.38
$0.38
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
8 shares @ 83.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.38
$0.38
- NO
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
8 shares @ 91.7¢·now 90.0¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$6.87
$-0.13
- NO
Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
7 shares @ 89.3¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.08
$0.08
- NO
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?
6 shares @ 86.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.26
$0.26
- NO
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 94.3¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.21
$0.21
- YES
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.05
$0.05
- NO
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?
4 shares @ 75.7¢·now 89.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$3.55
$0.55
- NO
Trump out as President before GTA VI?
6 shares @ 48.7¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.15
$0.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?$0.12May 18, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$1.00May 17, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$1.02May 17, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?$1.02May 17, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS bank failure by May 31?$1.05May 17, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x China tariff agreement by May 31?$1.01May 17, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$1.00May 17, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: Obama$1.00May 17, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto$1.00May 17, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by May 31?$3.00May 17, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?$1.02May 17, 19:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026?$1.11May 17, 18:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYNasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?$6.05May 17, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?$1.00May 16, 22:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump praise Joe Biden by May 31, 2026?$1.00May 16, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026?$1.00May 16, 22:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 18?$1.00May 16, 22:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYSaudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22?$1.00May 16, 22:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYEbola case in the US by June 30?$1.00May 16, 22:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?$1.01May 16, 22:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $2.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 15:41 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 08:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".