Warlike-Shoemaker
0x4eb601e831ba73bbc8e9f9f60aa636af632a5e8a
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
126
Open notional
$557.86
Total PnL
$-2.91
Realised
$-3.29
Win rate
56%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 126- NO
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?
13 shares @ 94.3¢·now 97.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$12.49
$0.43
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
13 shares @ 73.8¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.10
$1.63
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 97.8¢·now 97.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.80
$0.00
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?
10 shares @ 95.5¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.79
$0.24
- NO
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?
10 shares @ 75.0¢·now 96.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$9.72
$2.18
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
10 shares @ 91.9¢·now 94.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$9.62
$0.26
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 94.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.55
$0.15
- NO
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
10 shares @ 84.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.15
$0.75
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 88.9¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.90
$-0.04
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 54.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.47
$0.37
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$4.92May 18, 14:38 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by May 31, 2026?$1.25May 18, 14:37 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?$4.87May 18, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?$4.90May 18, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$4.91May 18, 13:51 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$0.36May 18, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?$4.93May 18, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?$4.90May 18, 13:26 UTC
- TRADESELLIran closes its airspace by May 18?$1.81May 18, 12:15 UTC
- TRADESELLIran closes its airspace by May 21?$3.68May 18, 12:13 UTC
- TRADESELLIran closes its airspace by May 18?$1.37May 18, 12:06 UTC
- TRADESELLIran closes its airspace by May 18?$1.74May 18, 12:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?$0.00May 18, 10:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?$0.00May 18, 10:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran strike Ukraine by April 30, 2026?$0.00May 18, 10:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?$0.00May 18, 10:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Senate pass the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)?$0.00May 18, 10:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump insult MBS by May 15?$0.00May 18, 10:01 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?$0.00May 18, 10:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump Leave China before May 13?$0.00May 18, 10:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 12
- Avg trade size
- $3.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 18, 10:00 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 14:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".