Portly-Begonia
0x645a91730f588c5586e8860936a7e3554303fd84
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$28.3K
Total PnL
$-4.0K
Realised
$1.2K
Win rate
81%
36 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
703 shares @ 31.2¢·now 84.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$593.71
$374.75
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
705 shares @ 35.9¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$504.22
$251.27
- NO
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
779 shares @ 31.7¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$479.22
$232.10
- NO
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?
517 shares @ 48.5¢·now 89.5¢·exp May 22, 2026$462.68
$211.72
- NO
Meta "Mango" model released by June 30?
585 shares @ 43.3¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$459.37
$205.87
- NO
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?
678 shares @ 36.3¢·now 66.3¢·exp May 31, 2026$449.45
$203.49
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
562 shares @ 44.8¢·now 75.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$424.53
$172.57
- NO
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
581 shares @ 43.4¢·now 72.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$423.55
$171.59
- NO
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30?
607 shares @ 41.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$421.49
$172.54
- NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
509 shares @ 49.9¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$404.98
$151.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Borova by May 31?$1.00May 18, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?$1.00May 18, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?$1.01May 18, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?$1.00May 18, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?$1.00May 18, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYEbola case in the US by June 30?$1.01May 18, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?$1.00May 18, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Borova by May 31?$1.00May 18, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?$1.00May 18, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?$1.01May 18, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?$1.00May 18, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?$1.00May 18, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?$1.01May 18, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?$1.00May 18, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYEbola case in the US by June 30?$1.01May 18, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Borova by May 31?$1.00May 18, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?$1.00May 18, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYEbola case in the US by June 30?$1.01May 18, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?$1.00May 18, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Borova by May 31?$1.00May 18, 09:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 18, 09:26 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 09:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 36 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".