Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?
Probability
67¢
1h
+13.0pp
24h
+43.5pp
24h Vol
$329.09
Liquidity
$2.2K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationLinkTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+40.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 44pp over 24h
Now 67¢; +13.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 13.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationLinkTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 1026.0h
- 06:00SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+43.5pp over the last 24h, now 67¢.
Biggest hourly move: +29.5pp at 05:00 (to 56¢).
Show top 8 of 55 hourly moves
- 05:00 · +29.5pp → 56¢
- 03:00 · +9.5pp → 36¢
- May 15, 16:00 UTC · -16.5pp → 25¢
- May 15, 15:00 UTC · -10.5pp → 26¢
- May 15, 13:00 UTC · -10.0pp → 27¢
- May 15, 01:00 UTC · +9.0pp → 31¢
- May 14, 21:00 UTC · +8.5pp → 30¢
- May 14, 19:00 UTC · +8.5pp → 30¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Market Description
On Friday, December 26th, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-recognises-somaliland-somalias-breakway-region-independent-state-2025-12-26/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any other UN member state formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with a relevant country, but do not formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of a recognizing country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:00:24 GMT, YES is priced at 67% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +43.5pp in the last 24 hours, +13.0pp in the last hour, and +40.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$329.09 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $6.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 13.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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