PoliticsExpires Jun 30, 2026
Creator

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?

Probability

35¢

1h

-7.0pp

24h

-33.0pp

24h Vol

$15.2K

Liquidity

$26.9K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-31.0pp 7d
1007550250
35¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:58 UTC
updated 06:59:03 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-59Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 33pp over 24h

    Now 35¢; -7.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved down 33.0pp in 24h with 0.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 40¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1025.0h

    LOW
  • 06:59Signal

    Momentum down

    Probability moved down 33.0pp in 24h with 0.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH

Price movement

-33.0pp over the last 24h, now 35¢.

Biggest hourly move: -34.5pp at 06:58 (to 35¢).

Show top 8 of 45 hourly moves
  • 06:58 · -34.5pp → 35¢
  • 05:00 · -25.0pp → 44¢
  • 03:00 · -26.0pp → 43¢
  • 02:00 · -24.0pp → 43¢
  • 00:00 · -23.5pp → 44¢
  • 23:00 · -25.0pp → 44¢
  • 21:00 · -20.0pp → 49¢
  • May 15, 02:00 UTC · +9.5pp → 69¢
updated 06:59:03 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 06:59:03 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tamas Sulyok ceases to be the President of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and June 30 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Sulyok's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Tamas Sulyok and the Hungarian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

president

Reason

Question text contains "president" — matched the Politics keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:59:03 GMT, YES is priced at 35% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -33.0pp in the last 24 hours, -7.0pp in the last hour, and -31.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$15.2K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $130.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $26.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket