Ordinary-Confectionery
0xa5e3044fd953605f9407d58c76e48fd75a394d7e
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$90.7K
Total PnL
$-13.1K
Realised
$38.9K
Win rate
59%
85 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
54593 shares @ 95.3¢·now 98.2¢·exp May 31, 2026$53.6K
$1.6K
- NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
6107 shares @ 85.8¢·now 92.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.6K
$408.37
- NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
6115 shares @ 69.3¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.9K
$623.79
- NO
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?
3014 shares @ 93.1¢·now 98.4¢·exp May 19, 2026$3.0K
$157.89
- NO
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
4300 shares @ 67.4¢·now 67.8¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$2.9K
$15.60
- NO
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
6438 shares @ 41.0¢·now 40.9¢·exp May 19, 2026$2.6K
$-3.13
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?
2092 shares @ 76.0¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$2.0K
$459.88
- YES
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
8413 shares @ 27.1¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$2.0K
$-301.42
- YES
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
3030 shares @ 59.9¢·now 62.5¢·exp May 26, 2026$1.9K
$77.91
- NO
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
2053 shares @ 90.5¢·now 90.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.9K
$-2.06
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?$1.54May 18, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jeff Yan appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?$16.10May 18, 05:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brian Armstrong appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?$28.00May 18, 05:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?$0.99May 18, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series?$4.28May 18, 04:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series?$4.32May 18, 04:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?$3.40May 18, 04:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?$3.40May 18, 04:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$0.43May 18, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open?$1.05May 18, 04:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?$101.49May 18, 04:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?$13.40May 18, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?$1.88May 18, 04:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the WI-06 House seat?$5.74May 18, 04:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series?$4.09May 18, 04:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?$4.99May 18, 04:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?$3.37May 18, 04:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?$100.95May 18, 04:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?$22.12May 18, 04:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series?$2.29May 18, 04:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $24.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 18, 04:32 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 05:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 85 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".