Popular-Knowledge

• NO

  Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

  1000 shares @ 87.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026

  $875.00

  $5.00

• NO

  Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?

  200 shares @ 92.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026

  $200.00

  $14.10

• NO

  Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?

  200 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026

  $200.00

  $0.70

• YES

  Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?

  300 shares @ 16.0¢·now 52.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026

  $156.00

  $108.00

• YES

  Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

  115 shares @ 30.8¢·now 74.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026

  $84.88

  $49.53

• YES

  Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?

  103 shares @ 38.0¢·now 81.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026

  $83.53

  $44.39

• YES

  Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

  124 shares @ 27.6¢·now 45.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2026

  $56.23

  $22.11

• NO

  Russian strike on Poland by June 30?

  53 shares @ 93.7¢·now 97.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026

  $51.28

  $2.07

• YES

  Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

  100 shares @ 20.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026

  $17.50

  $-2.50

• YES

  OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?

  10 shares @ 33.0¢·now 68.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026

  $6.80

  $3.50

• TRADEBUYWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$20.00Apr 22, 20:26 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?$48.00Apr 17, 15:07 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$2.35Apr 12, 02:11 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$0.24Apr 12, 02:08 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$4.95Apr 12, 00:59 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$2.97Apr 11, 17:18 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$2.83Apr 10, 09:27 UTC
• TRADEBUYGemini 3.5 released by April 30?$4.80Apr 1, 22:22 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$2.00Mar 29, 05:41 UTC
• TRADEBUYRussian strike on a NATO member by March 31?$86.04Mar 25, 10:26 UTC
• TRADEBUYRussian strike on a NATO member by March 31?$3.96Mar 25, 09:12 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$0.03Mar 20, 04:43 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$0.08Mar 20, 04:42 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$1.40Mar 20, 04:42 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$1.81Mar 20, 04:42 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$0.20Mar 20, 04:42 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$0.03Mar 20, 04:40 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$0.00Mar 20, 04:40 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$0.22Mar 20, 04:39 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$0.02Mar 20, 04:39 UTC

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