GeopoliticsExpires Jun 30, 2026
Creator

Russian strike on Poland by June 30?

Probability

2¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$240.34

Liquidity

$44.1K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.4pp 7d
1007550250
2¢
May 11, 2026, 10:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 09:45 UTC
updated 09:46:56 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T09-46Z

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1022.2h

    LOW

Price movement

-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.

Biggest hourly move: -3.2pp at May 14, 04:00 UTC (to 4¢).

Show 2 hourly moves
  • May 14, 07:00 UTC · -3.0pp → 4¢
  • May 14, 04:00 UTC · -3.2pp → 4¢
updated 09:46:56 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 09:46:56 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Geopolitics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

air strike

Reason

Air-strike markets are Geopolitics.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Russian strike on Poland by June 30?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 09:46:56 GMT, YES is priced at 2% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -1.4pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$240.34 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $107.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $44.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.3¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket