Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
5 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue UMA proposed — verify before treating moves as new info
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Resolves in 4h — verify the source
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MARKET PULSE
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
14% 13.0pp
24h volume
$4.5M
Orrery Pulse100% current53-100% 7D range+43.5pp net move
100%84%68%52%36%
100%
May 23100%+43.5pp from start
May 22May 23May 23May 23May 23May 23May 23May 23
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 3 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 1 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 2 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 95/91 96/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 90 | 95/95 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 91/87 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/79 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 75 | 53/90 96/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 23, 2026
Read full brief - Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? probability down 17.0pp on $1.2M of 24h volume.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner resolves in 1h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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WATCHLIST DELTA
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